Sunday 9 August 2009

Employment report follow up

By Spencer,Yesterday in describing the employment report I said:Moreover, the manufacturing work week rose from 39.5 to 39.8 hours and eventually hours were 2.9 hours versus 2.8 in the second quarter. Much of this was auto and confirms the previous reports that at smallest amount auto production is rebounding.I was criticized and accused of political bias since I was placing too much stress on the auto industry. According to my critics the increase in the auto hours worked should be ignored since it was due to government meddling and did not reflect what was really occurrence in the economy.Moreover, it was implied that the auto industry was atypical and was not representative of the rest of the economy. The BLS publishes the hours worked for ten sub industries of durable manufacturing. So what happened to them? In nine of the ten industries the work week long-drawn-out last month and four industries switched from falling hours worked to rising hours worked.Moreover, in the private service providing industries, hours worked long-drawn-out 0.3%, the first monthly increase since August, 2008. Just to place this in perspective, employment in the private service providing industries is 112,788,000 otherwise roughly ten times employment of 11,817,000 in all manufacturing:So the criticism that the hours worked just reflected the impact of the money for clunkers on the working of the economy is clearly completely wrong.Yes, as I pointed out the hours worked increase was impacted by the auto sector, but it was extensive through out the economy. The improvement in the service sector was particularly significant and that had nothing to do with the auto sector.Moreover, I specifically pointed out that hours worked is a most important indicator of future employment. At negative time did I say that the depression was over. That was the reason I characterized the employment report as encouraging. Compared to a lot of previous privateanalysts, especially on Wall Street, I thought my analysis was very tempered.I do not see where it was politically biased, and the argument that hours worked long-drawn-out only since of the auto sector just reflects ignorance.
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